The Hard Conversation Nobody Wants to Have About Today’s Housing Market

Sometimes the best opportunity isn’t what you sell your home for. It’s what you get to buy next.
I did a little research this morning on recent home sales here in the Santa Clarita Valley.
A home on Hampton just sold this week for $730,000. The last sale of a model match back in March was $795,000.
Another interesting sale was a three-bedroom, two-bath Sunrise home that just sold for $675,000. The three comparable sales before it were between $689,000 and $712,000.
Now, trust me, I’m not a real estate agent. I don’t know every tract, every floor plan, or every detail that might explain the difference between sales. Condition, location, and upgrades all matter. But after 36 years in the mortgage business, I do pay attention to trends.
When I see homes sitting on the market for weeks, sometimes months, with price reductions and very little activity, I start asking questions. 

Are we having the conversations with sellers that we really need to have?
I understand how difficult those conversations can be. Nobody wants to tell a homeowner that their property may not be worth what it was a year ago.
But isn’t that exactly what a great real estate professional is supposed to do?

Let me give you an example.
You have a listing where the seller wants $900,000. You believe that if you list it for $850,000, you’ll get some activity and possibly sell it for $830,000 to $840,000. But there’s a problem. The neighbor sold a model-match home in 2025 for $925,000, and your seller believes their home is nicer! I understand the argument.
But I also remember paying $5 a gallon for gas in 2025. That doesn’t mean the gas station owes me that same price today!
Markets change. What someone paid last year doesn’t necessarily tell us what someone will pay today. Here’s the part of this conversation I think we’re missing. Your seller is moving to Thousand Oaks because they just accepted a job there. They’re tired of the commute, tired of the traffic, and ready to move on with their lives. So what are we accomplishing by keeping their house on the market for another three months, hoping that someone will eventually pay $900,000?
What if we explained that the same market conditions that may require them to accept less for their current home are also creating an incredible opportunity on the home they’re about to buy?
Maybe the house they wanted in Thousand Oaks was $1.2 million a year ago, and today they can negotiate it down to $1.1 million. That’s a $100,000 difference!
They may sell their current home for $85,000 less than their neighbor received last year, but if they can buy their next home for $100,000 less, they’re actually $15,000 ahead.
And that’s before considering potentially lower property taxes, seller-paid closing costs, a temporary interest-rate buydown, or other concessions they might be able to negotiate.
Of course, every transaction is different, and you need to evaluate the math carefully.
But the opportunity is no longer in the sale. It is now in the purchase!

 Why I believe this is one of the best buying opportunities we’ve seen in years
I’ve been doing mortgages since 1990, and I haven’t seen this combination of opportunities in a very long time. In some situations, I believe it’s the most favorable negotiating environment for buyers since the years following the housing crisis.
Here’s why:
1. Sellers are more negotiable.
A year or two ago, many buyers felt they had to accept whatever the seller demanded. Today, some sellers will negotiate on price, closing costs, repairs, and even financing concessions to sell their homes.
2. Buyers have better selection.
When homes sell in days, buyers have limited choices and little time to decide. Longer marketing times let buyers compare properties, neighborhoods, and prices without rushing.
3. You may be able to negotiate an interest rate buydown.
Instead of reducing the purchase price, a seller might agree to contribute to a 1/0 or 2/1 temporary interest rate buydown. That means a buyer could potentially enjoy lower mortgage payments during the first year or two of ownership, while they adjust to their new home and expenses. And in some cases, the seller may prefer that concession over a larger price reduction.
4. You have more negotiating power after inspections.
A buyer may have a better opportunity to negotiate repairs or credits for issues discovered during inspections instead of simply accepting the home as-is.
5. There’s less pressure to overpay.
One of the biggest problems in the market a few years ago was buyers competing against multiple offers, waiving contingencies and paying well above the asking price.
Today, qualified buyers may have more room to negotiate and protect themselves.
6. You may have an opportunity to refinance later.
Yes, interest rates are a big reason we’re seeing this market shift.
But here’s something I remind buyers of all the time. You negotiate the price of the house today. You finance it at today’s interest rates. If interest rates fall in the future, you may have an opportunity to refinance and lower your monthly payment. There are no guarantees that rates will fall, and you need to be comfortable making the payments at today’s rates. But buying at a negotiated price can provide an advantage that doesn’t disappear when you refinance.
At Augusta Financial, we also offer qualifying clients our Free Lifetime Refinance Guarantee, which can make future refinancing more affordable by eliminating certain lender and third-party fees, subject to program requirements. Shameless plug! LOL!

 The conversation needs to change.
I know what some sellers are thinking. “I’m not giving my house away.”
And I agree. Nobody should give their house away!
But accepting what today’s market will support isn’t giving something away. It’s recognizing reality.
The important question isn’t what your home might have sold for 12 months ago.
The important question is what your entire move looks like financially today.
What will you net from your sale?
What can you negotiate on your next home?
What will your monthly payment look like?
What seller concessions are available?
And what does it cost to keep waiting?
For the family moving to Thousand Oaks, some considerations don’t appear on a settlement statement.
How much time are they spending commuting? How much are they spending on gas? How much time are they missing with their families? What is the stress of waiting another three or four months worth?
These things matter too. 

A message to my real estate agent friends
I have tremendous respect for what you do, and I understand that these aren’t easy conversations. But keeping a listing at a price the market won’t support doesn’t help anyone. Sometimes the most valuable thing you can do for a seller is to tell them something they don’t want to hear.
Sometimes the best way to make that conversation easier is to help them understand the opportunity waiting on the other side of the transaction.
We need to stop focusing exclusively on what sellers may be losing compared to last year and start showing them what they can potentially gain on their next purchase.
I also think we’re making a mistake by telling buyers to sit on the sidelines until interest rates come down. What happens if rates come down and thousands of buyers decide to jump back into the market at the same time? Competition could increase. Sellers could become less negotiable. Prices could rise in some areas. Would you rather negotiate a better purchase price today and potentially refinance later, or wait for a lower interest rate and find yourself competing against five other buyers?
Nobody knows exactly where prices or interest rates are headed.
But one thing I do know is that you can’t refinance the price you paid for the house.

 My closing thought
If you’re selling a home and buying another, don’t evaluate those two transactions separately. Look at the entire picture. And if you’re a buyer who has been sitting on the sidelines, take another look at what’s happening around you. Opportunities in this market weren’t available when buyers were competing for every listing. You have to recognize them. It’s hard to buy when you can’t sell. And sometimes the best way to move forward is to stop looking backward.

Interest Rates
Just when you think you understand the global financial markets, you realize you don’t know crap! Yesterday, CPI came in HOT, which should have been terrible for rates. It was for about an hour, and then the bond market reversed course! Today, PPI came in even hotter, and guess what? Rates improved again! Why? Investors are getting nervous about massive spending on AI infrastructure, and some are moving money out of AI stocks and into the safety of bonds. More demand for bonds means lower yields, which generally helps mortgage rates. So we get two bad inflation reports, and rates actually improve! After 36 years in this business, I’ve learned one thing: When you think you’ve figured out the markets, they prove you wrong! And we’ll take lower rates any way we can!

Loan Programs Snapshot

• Government loans (FHA/VA/USDA): in the high 6’s and low 7’s –
• Conventional (≤ $832,750): in the 7’s
• High-balance: in the 7’s
• Jumbo: In the 7’s
• Bridge Loans: 8.290%

Additional options:

• Bank statement loans (10% down+)
• P&L loans (20% down, no bank statements)
• 0% down options (620+ score)
• DSCR loans (15% down)
• Buydowns Available (3/2/1, 2/1, 1/0)
• Private Money loans – Hard Money  
• Construction Loans
• 203K loans
• Commercial Loans
• Fix and Flip Loans  

Rates subject to change without notice.

Condo Update
Good news:
American Beauty Village West: Is FHA-approved but still on Fannie’s Naughty list for now!  

Bad news:
Nothing new!    

We love your Non-Warrantable Condo loans!!
Need help checking a condo? Call me, and we can look it up in real time.
Also:
Full California “naughty list” available here:
https://mikemeena.com/non-warrantable-condos/

If you or your clients, friends, or family need guidance, I'm here.

📞 661-291-2222 (Direct)

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📧 Mike@AugustaFinancial.com

Sincerely,